The first half of 2025 has been unpredictable; even messy at times. Headlines screamed about tariffs, corrections, conflicts, and the dollar dropping like a stone. In April, the S&P 500 was down more than 15% for the year — enough to make even the steadiest hands a little sweaty.
Then, like it often does, the market snapped back faster than anyone could have scripted. Now, we’re staring at the S&P 500 brushing up against all-time highs again. Blink and you’d think the correction never happened.
A big chunk of the drama came from new tariffs. President Trump hiked them up, dialed some back, then turned the dial up again. Trade policy has looked more like a game of whack-a-mole than a chess match. Yet the economy, stubborn as ever, keeps chugging along — inflation’s been tame, and unemployment hasn’t budged much.
Then there’s the Fed. Few institutions get talked about more with less understood. Rates have stayed steady so far this year, hovering between 4.25% and 4.50%. The Fed’s playing it careful, waiting for clearer signs. Two rate cuts could still be on the table this year, but “could” is the operative word.
Beyond our borders, the Middle East has been tense. Oil prices have stayed calm, though. International stocks have actually outperformed U.S. stocks so far — a nice reminder that diversification, while boring, can surprise you in the best ways.
If there’s one takeaway from these six months, it’s this: markets love to scare you out and invite you back in at the worst times. The folks who stuck around, stayed diversified, and didn’t jump ship — they’re the ones enjoying the recovery today.
Staying the course doesn’t feel heroic when you’re doing it. But give it enough time, and you see it’s one of the few things that works consistently.
