This fall, the bond market experienced what a team of analysts at Bank of America calls “the greatest bond bear market of all time.” If you’re familiar with the stock market, you’ll know what this means: the prices of bonds have dropped significantly—and while bonds have rallied recently, high-net-worth investors could still be in for more ups and downs.
In times like we saw earlier this year, one common question among investors is, “Why are bond values declining?” Here, we’ll explore why bond values are fluctuating and what the falling prices imply for savvy investors.
Understanding the Bond Market and Why Bond Values Have Seen Declines in Recent Years
Bonds are financial instruments the government or corporate bodies use to raise capital to fund operations. When you buy a bond, you’re entitled to receive interest payments, often called coupon payments. This makes bonds an attractive investment for investors looking for reliable income streams or those working with a short investment horizon, like someone who plans to retire soon.
There are several factors that can influence prices in the bond market. The biggest of these is interest rates. Bond prices typically move in the opposite direction of market interest rates. When interest rates go up, bond prices go down. On the other hand, falling rates boost a bond’s value/price as the cash flows are discounted at a lower discount rate.
The past two years have been especially challenging for bond investors. Bloomberg Aggregate Index recorded that the bond market declined 13% in 2022 and declined as much as in 2023, before the recent rally.
As stated earlier, the value of bonds and the market interest rates are inversely correlated. Between the first quarter of 2022 and the third quarter of 2023, the Federal Reserve raised the rates from almost zero to 5.25%-5.5%. Keep in mind that these rates set the floor price for borrowing. When interest rates went up, the value of bonds currently held in investors’ accounts went down.
The current market situation—higher yields and lower prices—means this is a good time to invest in bonds. The decline in the prices of bonds over the past few years due to high-interest rates makes high-quality bonds even more attractive; and even with the November rally, the bond market could still offer significant opportunities for high-net-worth investors.
Nevertheless, as with any investment, buying bonds comes with a certain level of risk. Investors should take advantage of different investment strategies in the bond market like bond laddering to mitigate risks.
Individual Bonds vs. Bond Funds: Which Strategy Is Right for You?
If you’re looking for the right strategy to fit your portfolio, it’s important to recognize the difference between investing in individual bonds and investing in bond funds. When you invest in individual bonds, you’re directly lending money to the government or corporations. This means that even though their value might temporarily dip during market declines, you can typically expect the full amount back at maturity. The downside is that it can be difficult to achieve proper diversification in smaller accounts, so individual bond portfolios are better suited to high-net-worth investors.
Bond funds, on the other hand, can provide a more accessible solution to achieve diversification and professional management in smaller accounts.
Overall, managing individual bonds involves more effort, but can offer better control over outcomes and potentially shield you from some of the ups and downs of the market. We at Deerfield manage investments in individual bonds, but since every situation is different, it’s important to consult with a professional advisor for a custom strategy suited to your goals.
Make the Right Investment Decisions
The Deerfield Financial Advisors team is experienced in offering sound investment guidance—focused on you. As your life and career become more complex, so does managing your wealth, and you’re sure to face many complicated scenarios along the way. That’s why you want a wealth manager that understands your specific situation, to reduce complexities and help capitalize on opportunities.
To learn more about how we can help you use your wealth to create more of what is worthwhile in life (what we call your WealthwhileSM), schedule a meeting (virtual or in person), call (317) 469-2459 or email mmiller@t8j.01f.mywebsitetransfer.com.
About Marcus
Marcus Miller is Wealth Manager and Shareholder at Deerfield Financial Advisors, a fee-only financial services and wealth management firm with offices in Indianapolis and Chicago. His role includes strategic planning, income tax optimization, insurance and estate planning, and investment management for a diverse group of clients. Implementing Deerfield’s unique financial planning approach called WealthwhileSM, Marcus helps clients live their best lives and focus on their most worthwhile passions. He is passionate about helping them pursue, experience, and maintain true financial independence for their families—without the sales pitch. He truly enjoys helping people and developing deep, meaningful relationships with clients.
Prior to joining Deerfield in 2012, Marcus gained valuable experience at a Big Four accounting firm, a nationally recognized brokerage house, and a distinguished independent advisory firm. He holds a Bachelor of Science and Master of Science in Accounting from Ball State University, the Certified Public Accountant and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ designations, and is a NAPFA Registered Financial Advisor. Marcus serves on the Board of Happy Hollow Children’s Camp and on the Planned Giving Committee at the Indianapolis Zoo. He is a member of the Professional Advisor Leadership Council at the Central Indiana Community Foundation (CICF) and is involved at his daughters’ school.
Marcus resides in Carmel, IN, with his wife, Andrea, and their two daughters. They love spending time outdoors hiking, bicycling, camping, and traveling to national parks. (They have a goal to visit all 63 national parks; Yosemite is the current favorite.) An avid reader, especially of non-fiction, history, and finance books, Marcus also trains in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, likening it to a physical chess match that involves problem-solving and mental strengthening with physical consequences. To learn more about Marcus, connect with him on LinkedIn.
